Extending The Play – Week Eleven

We’ll avoid touching on the two officiating issues dominating the headlines after the NFL’s eleventh week, or the constant deluge of Richie Incognito stories.  Instead, here are five other topics that seem relevant as the season hits its final quarter…

1)  Robert Griffin III’s star sure dimmed quickly.

Amidst a 3-7 season, inexorably the discontent from a fan base is usually directed at one of two people: the quarterback or the head coach.  In this case, both are getting their comeuppance from supporters invigorated by an NFC East title and playoff appearance last season.  After an offseason in which Griffin had knee surgery and publicly lobbied to play while Coach Mike Shanahan insisted he wait until the opener, the Redskins look to be in total disarray following a disheartening loss to the Eagles on Sunday.  Perhaps worse, Griffin seems to be blaming the coaches in his appearances with the media while players like Santana Moss are insinuating he start sharing the blame.  There’s even talk of  whether Shanahan will survive to see the final year of his contract next season, with many saying his seeming disillusionment with his quarterback could seal his demise.  What a public relations tumble for everyone’s golden boy of last season, RGIII.

2)  Last year’s Super Bowl participants are about to get key members of their offense back.

Word is that tight end Dennis Pitta is set to begin practicing again for the Ravens, and not a moment too soon.  Joe Flacco has looked lost at times following his ascendancy to Super Bowl champ last year, mostly because he’s really only had one viable throwing option in Torrey Smith.  As a result, teams have largely shut down Ray Rice (though he appeared to have a nice bounce-back game against the Bears this past Sunday).  Pitta will help the offense loosen up a bit and hopefully make Flacco more confident in his pass-catching corps.  The San Francisco 49ers just got Mario Manningham back and Vernon Davis is finally (seemingly) healthy again.  While it didn’t lead to a win over the Saints on the road, once Michael Crabtree returns as expected in the coming weeks Colin Kaepernick will finally have his full complement of passing weapons for the first time all year.  Both Baltimore and the Niners are making playoff pushes for the Wild Card, so these players’ insertion into the lineup comes at a crucial time in helping to decide whether they earn a chance to repeat their feats from last year.

3)  The San Diego Chargers are still the same ol’ Chargers.

After a solid 4-3 start to the year and talk of the revitalization of Philip Rivers, the team has gone out and lost three consecutive games.  Mike McCoy replacing Norv Turner was supposed to open up the offense and make it less stagnant, so how did they blow several chances at the one yard line to beat Washington or lose to the eternally distracted Dolphins this past Sunday?  While the Denver loss sandwiched in the middle of those games is understandable, this is a team that needs to show a killer instinct when it has a chance to make a playoff push.  Much like their counterparts, the Dallas Cowboys, they just don’t seem to have the “it” factor.  You can’t blame Rivers this year, but you have to blame someone don’t you?

4)  That was a bad loss for the Detroit Lions.

After leading the Pittsburgh Steelers late and with Matthew Stafford having no problem dicing up the Steeler secondary, the Lions ran a mind-boggling fake field goal attempt up by three early in the fourth.  It failed, and so did their chance to earn a solid non-divisional win.  The Lions are still in the driver’s seat in the NFC North thanks to a tiebreaker they hold over Chicago and the fact that Aaron Rodgers is still injured.  But this team has to close out the season on a high note, not go stagnant like they have in the past.  Their schedule the rest of the way out is a fairly easy one, so they must take advantage.  The playoffs are a good bet, but losses like this one Sunday also speak to a team that may not have what it takes to make much noise in the postseason.

5)  Matt Schaub’s era has to be over in Houston.

This had to be expected when Schaub returned from injury and was still looking up at Case Keenum on the depth chart.  His early-season interception issues were well-chronicled, but it was the scene of he and Andre Johnson having it out on the sideline that is a true microcosm of Schaub’s standing with the Texans.  Johnson has performed far better with Keenum under center, who seems perfectly happy throwing to him early and often no matter who’s in coverage.  Coach Gary Kubiak, once a very staunch Schaub supporter, is going back to Keenum this week with the season in the tank and needing to analyze the quarterback situation long-term.  Even the hometown fans prefer Keenum.  It’s a perfect storm for the once ascending Schaub, and he will likely be on his way out after this year.

Extending The Play – Week Ten

Last week, Jacksonville and Tampa Boy both won.  It shows the unpredictability of the National Football League, and also helped answer some questions.  Will a second team go 0-16?  No.  Is the Miami locker room scandal a HUGE distraction for the Dolphins?  Oh yeah.  Here are five other key points after ten weeks of professional football…

1)  Don’t look now, but a 32-year old is leading the NFL in sacks.

Often overshadowed in Indianapolis by the now-departed Dwight Freeney on the defensive side of the ball and the star power on the offensive side of the ball (Manning and Harrison, now Luck and Wayne pre-injury), Mathis has always been a steady force on Indy’s defensive line.  But this is a sort of renaissance season for the 11-year veteran.  Out of Freeney’s shadow, Mathis leads the NFL with 13.5 sacks.  It’s often said this is a young man’s game where careers are short and consistently productive careers even shorter, but Mathis is proving a grizzled veteran can still get to the quarterback in impressive fashion.  There’s plenty of tape on a guy who’s been in the league for 11 years.  Doesn’t mean you can stop him.

2)  The Broncos may be facing the Chiefs at the wrong time.

Much has been made of the vanilla offense of the Chiefs (Jamaal Charles left, Jamaal Charles right, checkdown to Jamaal Charles), essentially dooming them to the now-heinous moniker of a “defensive team.”  So surely they can’t keep pace with the prolific Broncos offense this week, right?  Well, their defense is that good, and Peyton Manning is now banged-up with ankle injuries that have plagued him for weeks.  If the Chiefs are able to keep long, sustained drives and hit Manning early and often, this game may be a lot closer than people think.  Kansas City isn’t 9-0 for no reason, even if they have faced less-than stellar quarterback play most of the way.  If their pass rush forces Manning to keep his passing short and they again play mistake-free football, don’t count out the possibility of this team going 10-0.

3)  Mike Munchak has to be on the hot seat now in Tennessee.

There are a couple of things that one can often point to when a coach is being talked about as possibly losing his job.  One is an inability to compete in the division; the Titans are now 0-2 in the AFC South.  Another is the inability to groom the quarterback of the future; Jake Locker is hurt again, placing Ryan Fitzpatrick behind center and generating more uncertainty about Locker’s ability to lead this team in the years to come.  Yet another is an inability to get consistent production out of a superstar; Chris Johnson has shown flashes this year, but still is nowhere near the back he was when he ran for 2,000 yards a couple of years ago.  Throw in the fact that Tennessee became Jacksonville’s first victim of the season (in Tennessee no less) and Munchak has some work to do to ensure his third season is not his last.

4)  San Francisco may be slumping, but help is on the way.

Colin Kaepernick’s numbers are plummeting, and the 49ers offense as a whole is punchless.  Many pundits and fans are saying this is an overrated team that made poor personnel decisions in the offseason, dooming it to underachieve the year after making the Super Bowl.  Yes, the Niners did overestimate the potential impact wide receivers Kyle Williams and Marlon Moore(now both cut casualties) and trade acquisition Jon Baldwin could make as a second receiver.  Yes, teams can focus on Anquan Boldin as the only true receiving threat due to Vernon Davis’ injury-plagued year.  But Davis is going to return, and so is Michael Crabtree.  If this team’s wide receiver corps opens up their passing attack and, by extension, allows Kaepernick to use his legs at times like last year, don’t underestimate the potential this team has to cause havoc in the postseason.  Unfortunately, they’ll likely be trying to do much of it on the road.

5)  The NFC’s final weeks should be awesome.

While much of the NFC playoff picture appears clear (Seahawks in the West, Lions likely in the North, Saints in the South, some putrid team from the East, 49ers as the first wild card), home field and the final wild card spot will play out in spectacular fashion over the coming weeks.  Carolina, the odds-on favorite to snag that last playoff spot, still has New Orleans on its schedule twice and also faces Tom Brady and the Patriots at home this coming Monday night.  San Francisco plays at the Saints this Sunday; New Orleans takes on the Seahawks in Washington state two weeks later; and Seattle and the Niners tangle the following week.  It should be a great final few weeks of football that should help clarify who has the inside track to home field, and likely the Super Bowl, in the NFC.

Extending The Play – Week Nine

Nine weeks in the books.  Here’s some analysis of the NFL storylines I found interesting following this latest string of games…

 

1)  The Detroit Lions have a chance to seize control of the NFC North.

Now that Aaron Rodgers will be sidelined at least three weeks with a broken collarbone and Jay Cutler’s status as the Bears’ starter is up in the air due to injury as well, it’s the Lions’ time to wrest control of the division.  They’ll start by meeting Chicago this weekend (with or without Cutler) and could be well on their way to creating a little distance from their rivals.  As long as the offense keeps humming along and the defense can at least keep opponents honest, this is a team that looks like a definite contender to claim the division or at least challenge for a Wild Card if they stumble down the stretch.

2)  Revisited: why are the Cowboys throwing the ball so much?

While Tony Romo is having a great year (one play versus Denver notwithstanding), the team’s run-pass balance continues to be wildly out of whack.  DeMarco Murray, when healthy, has been very productive for this team on the ground.  Yet, there they were throwing the ball 87% of the time in last week’s matchup with the Vikings.  If the team is struggling running the ball or finds themselves behind, that’s one thing.  But Dallas has been in just about every game this season, and one has to wonder if Romo’s new-found control over playcalling at the line and the disparity in run versus pass means that he doesn’t trust his running game or offensive line.  When Bill Callahan, an offensive line coach, took over playcalling duties in the offseason, one was led to believe this would be a running team.  Instead, it appears Romo’s influence on or impression of the offense keeps leading to an offensive attack geared towards throwing the football.

3)  The Miami controversy shows that football locker rooms are a different work environment than almost any other.

When the details of Richie Incognito’s texts and voicemails to Jonathan Martin became public, the immediate outcry around the country was not surprising.  What may surprise some is the way the players, past and present, seem to have reacted to the story thus far.  Many of them, including Antrel Rolle of the New York Giants, have even gone so far as to say that Martin was at least partially to blame for not standing up for himself and not having “thick skin.”  While many, including Rolle, agree that Incognito’s “motivational tactics” went entirely too far, it’s still obvious that the NFL locker room is nothing like the workplace most of us experience.  It’s a macho world, and when grown men appear mentally or emotionally incapable of taking jokes, however abhorrent they may appear, others on the team consider them weak.  We may not understand this, and we certainly don’t need to condone it, but the realization of how different the professional sports world and its expectations are are only exacerbated by this story.

4)  Rex Ryan is making a strong claim to at least be considered to be the head coach of the Jets next year.

This is a team that’s over .500 now, and is playing like a Rex Ryan team.  The defense is formidable, the game versus Cincinnati notwithstanding, and it’s keeping this young team in games.  Even without playmaker (and diva) Santonio Holmes available at wide receiver and with a running game by committee that doesn’t always show up, the offense seems to make enough plays at the end of games to put the team in position to win.  If Geno Smith finishes out the year on a good, successful note, then Ryan can lay claim to having put his defensive imprint on this team and helped develop his quarterback of the future.  With control of the locker room to boot, Ryan may be tough to force out in New York.  A playoff spot would make it nearly impossible when you consider the preseason predictions for this roster.

5)  NFL coaches need to be monitored more closely for workload and health.

Anyone who watched Gary Kubiak collapse at halftime of the Texans/Colts game Sunday night or heard about the heart surgery Broncos coach John Fox had to undergo this week realizes that this is a job that can really push the limits of the human body.  It requires extensive hours that means minimal sleep and exercise.  After watching the same thing happen to Urban Meyer in college, clearly there needs to be more significant oversight of the coaching staff’s health and hours spent.  Owners, if no one else, should be all in favor of maintaining the health of the most important member of their staff.  Sometimes you have to save people from themselves, and if the league is doing it with players, they should be doing the same with their head coaches.

Extending The Play – Week Eight

Midway through the NFL season, plenty to talk about.  Let’s get to five storylines garnered from week eight of the football season…

1)  Divisional games are just different. 

Anyone who watched the Seahawks nearly get shocked by their divisional foe St. Louis Rams, despite a less-than-stellar home crowd due to the World Series being played nearby, knows these games require a heightened sense of preparation and intensity.  By all accounts, Seattle, picked by many as a Super Bowl favorite, should have throttled a team with no discernible offensive identity and starting a backup at quarterback.  Instead, St. Louis, using its familiarity with its divisional foe, capitalized on the backup tackles Pete Carroll was forced to trot out against them and harried Russell Wilson all night with constant pressure.  While they weren’t able to capitalize on a chance to win the game from inside the five in the waning seconds, a slumbering St. Louis pass rush awoke and the offense found a ground game to keep them in it.  Many divisional games appear to be mismatches on paper: don’t overlook the familiarity factor.

2)  Michael Vick’s era is likely over in Philadelphia.

What was once Vick’s greatest asset is now his greatest liability.  As Vick ages, his body is less and less able to handle the constant pounding he takes as a running quarterback.  Everyone knew that going into the season, and everyone knows it full well now as he continually limps off the playing field fighting hamstring issues.  His reclamation story in Philly was a great story, but now it appears he’s done acting as the franchise’s savior.  While he misses roughly three weeks, coach Chip Kelly will continue to give Nick Foles and (maybe) Matt Barkley the chance to audition for the future role as Eagles starting quarterback.  When Vick returns, if he sees the field it’s likely because of injury.  If the others are ineffective in his absence it will mean the team is well out of playoff contention, and there’s really no reason to put him back out there.  Vick must look ahead to next year, with another franchise.

3)  Kansas City may not be the best team in the NFL…but they’re the best right now.

Everyone is trying to poke holes in the mystique that is the Kansas City Chiefs now that they’re 8-0, focusing on the winning percentages of the teams they’ve beaten (hint: it’s not good) rather than the fact that this team won two games last year.  Yes, the whole offense is Jamaal Charles right now.  Yes, the defense is the primary reason they win games.  Yes, Alex Smith is conservative on almost every throw.  But Charles and the defense are outstanding, and Smith does not turn the ball over and put his defense in tough positions.  Denver may sweep them, and they’ll definitely lose a few before playoff time.  But why not focus on how far this franchise has come from the previous regime’s debacle to the current state of the team helmed by Andy Reid?  They’re a playoff team, which is quite remarkable after last year, and should be celebrated as such.

4)  Who are the Cincinnati Bengals?

After watching this team demolish a surprisingly competitive New York Jets team last week, this is a question worth asking.  We knew the defense would be talented, and we knew that Giovanni Bernard and BenJarvus Green-Ellis would make for an interesting backfield that could be difficult to gameplan against.  Andy Dalton seemed to be the wild card, but he just threw four touchdowns to Marvin Jones last week and looked efficient and poised in the pocket.  This is a team prone to wild momentum swings throughout the season, but with Pittsburgh and Baltimore still trying to right the ship and Cleveland looking to next year as usual, the Bengals don’t have to worry about solidifying their standing in the division.  What they do need is a home-field situation in the playoffs and consistent play from their oft-maligned quarterback through the season’s second half.  Earning a bye would be tantamount to this team living up to its preseason hype.

5)  The Miami Dolphins wasted their fantastic start to the season.

It was discussed earlier on this blog that the Dolphins ability to navigate their early schedule, which included games with Indianapolis, Atlanta, and New Orleans, would be a sign of how their season would shape out.  Well, the Dolphins started 3-0, including wins over the Colts and Falcons.  Even after an expected loss at the Superdome in New Orleans, Miami looked like a legitimate contender in the AFC East, ready to take down their rival Patriots.  Instead, Miami followed the New Orleans loss by bowing to Baltimore, Buffalo, and the hated Pats to fall to 3-4.  The running game with Daniel Thomas and Lamar Miller has been a non-factor, and the defensive performances keeping the team in games has been wasted.  Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has no time to pass due to a porous offensive line, and it’s been reflected in his poor decision-making over the last four games in which he’s turned the ball over seven times.  This team doesn’t appear to have the foundation to make a run at the AFC East crown, especially with Tom Brady and company beginning to get healthy.

Extending The Play – Week Seven

Week seven of the NFL season saw numerous injuries to the men who occupy the most important position in sports: quarterback.  Each has put the immediate future of his team, and possibly his future, in question.  Let’s examine five less-than-ideal quarterback situations in the league:

1)  What are the Minnesota Vikings doing?

As if the flip-flopping between Christian Ponder and Matt Cassel wasn’t enough, the Vikings went out and acquired Josh Freeman two weeks ago.  They then trotted him out on Monday night when it was clear he wasn’t ready, and he responded with one of the worst statistical quarterbacking performances in Monday Night Football history.  Now, it comes to light that Freeman sustained a concussion at some point in the game and is likely unavailable on a short week with the Buccaneers coming up on Thursday night.  So who do the Vikings plan to start?  Ponder again, apparently healed from his rib injury, but not Cassel, who owns the team’s only victory this season and was ahead of Ponder on the depth chart for part of the season.  The expression goes if you have two quarterbacks you don’t have any.  What do you have if you have three?

2)  The Chicago Bears’ season prospects just became dire.

With Jay Cutler being injured against the Redskins on Sunday, a groin injury that will cost him four weeks, the Bears now must entrust the meaty part of their season schedule to career backup Josh McCown.  Cutler had performed well under the tutelage of new head coach Marc Trestman, and it appeared that this was a marriage made in heaven for the oft-criticized quarterback.  Instead, Cutler now has less time to prove himself in a contract year, and it’s unclear whether Bears brass are convinced he can get them to the next level.  If the team flounders in his absence and his return isn’t enough to spark Chicago to the playoffs, the Bears may have a very difficult decision to make this offseason.

3)  Speaking of difficult decisions…

What are the Rams going to do with Sam Bradford?   Bradford was lost for the season with a torn ACL this past Sunday.  St. Louis will trot out Kellen Clemens for the foreseeable future in his stead.  Bradford was often said to be a victim of a lack of playmakers around him, but this year’s team added Jared Cook at tight end in free agency and drafted the supposedly game-breaking Tavon Austin at wide receiver.  Even though Bradford’s season stats were some of the best of his career (14 touchdowns to five interceptions, 60.7% completion percentage), his team was still only 3-4 at week’s end.  Now, without the chance to spearhead his squad towards a playoff berth, the St. Louis brass will have to determine if Bradford really is their franchise signal-caller.  His contract runs through 2015, but when will the team start considering contingency plans?

4)  The cute story of the Cleveland Browns sure soured quickly.

Brian Hoyer’s meteoric rise over a two-week period in place of an injured Brandon Weeden gave Browns fans reason for hope, especially with wideout Josh Gordon about to return from suspension and in the wake of a deflating Trent Richardson trade.  But Hoyer was lost for the year with a torn ACL, too, and Weeden returned to man the helm.  In his second NFL season, Weeden is still extremely turnover-prone (check out the YouTube video of his frisbee-like interception a week and a half ago against Detroit, it’s AMAZING) and has done nothing to dispel notions he was a poor choice for Cleveland’s quarterback of the future.  Now, head coach Rob Chudzinski has benched Weeden in favor of Jason Campbell, whom third-stringer Hoyer hopped in the pecking order to earn his starts.  Similar to the situation in Minnesota, it seems this team isn’t enamored with any of the QB’s on its roster and may be looking to the 2014 Draft for help.

5)  The Eagles ended up in a quarterback controversy like everyone thought they would.

While most agreed Michael Vick was best-suited to run this team, it was inevitable he would get hurt.  And he did.  In came Nick Foles, a popular fan pick due to some of the success he had in relief of Vick under Andy Reid last year, but Foles had anything but awe-inspiring performances on the field.  Now, Foles is injured after facing Dallas in an ugly loss, and Vick is back in command of the offense.  New coach Chip Kelly said anyone on the roster at quarterback could run his offense, but all of the athletes at the position on his team are having difficulty staying on the field.  At least Matt Barkley is healthy.  Well, maybe that’s not a good alternative, either.

Extending The Play – Week Six

Now six weeks into the NFL season, the injury bug has ravaged several teams and helped us make sense of who to bank on heading into the latter part of the season and into the postseason beyond as actual contenders.  While the must-see Denver-Kansas City matchup is a few weeks away with both possibly 9-0 heading into November 17th, there’s plenty to take away from this past week and look forward to in week seven:

1)  Philip Rivers is rejuvenated under new head coach Mike McCoy.

After a solid if unspectacular performance last night in a win over the Indianapolis Colts, San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers looks like a new man now that he’s out from under the play-calling thumb of Norv Turner.  McCoy seems to have Rivers making quicker decisions while also valuing his input on the offense.  In addition, the offensive line is vastly improved this year over last.  In 2012, Rivers absorbed 49 sacks over the course of the regular season.  Through six games this year he’s only been brought down ten times.  His turnover rate is also significantly lower, as Rivers was responsible for 28 turnovers last year (15 interceptions to go with 13 fumbles lost) compared to only five so far this year.  It appears that Rivers has better protection, a more efficient running game, and the input he needs into the offense to make him more comfortable and more secure in knowing he doesn’t have to do everything for his team to have a chance.  The Chargers are sitting at 3-3, so they aren’t going to catch Kansas City or Denver in their division, but with upcoming games against Jacksonville and Washington they could improve to 5-3 before their first meeting with the Broncos.  This could be a team on the cusp of a wild-card berth at season’s end if Rivers continues to fire on all cylinders.

2)  Speaking of injuries, the Packers are facing a serious war of attrition.

Already having lost pass-rusher extraordinaire Clay Matthews for a few weeks with a broken thumb, the Packers saw linebacker Nick Perry go down with a foot injury this Sunday against Baltimore.  That’s just the defensive side of the ball.  Quarterback Aaron Rodgers also saw his two big-play threats, receivers James Jones (sprained PCL) and Randall Cobb (fractured fibula) injured in the contest.  While the Packers were able to grind out a win on the road, they have to be concerned about their offense.  Jones’ injury appears to be the least serious, as he is considered an outside possibility to play this upcoming weekend.  Cobb, however, is gone for 4-8 weeks according to reports.  While Rodgers got by with Jarrett Boykin and Jordy Nelson this past week, along with a solid contribution from tight end Jermichael Finley, much of the quarterback’s vertical attack would be compromised without either receiver (much less both).  The good news is Green Bay seems to have found a reliable running attack, so while the offense undoubtedly will look less electric than in years past for the foreseeable future, it may still remain effective enough to keep this team on the winning track.

3)  Oh look, New England is 5-1.

Just as everyone was wringing their hands over the continued absence of Rob Gronkowski and wondering if even Bill Belichick and Tom Brady could possibly sustain success with this roster full of role players, the Patriots went out and knocked off the previously unbeaten Saints.  Sure, the game was in Foxborough, and sure, they benefited from some very conservative play-calling by Saints coach Sean Payton in the crucial final moments.  But in the end, Brady found whoever was lining up at receiver when he had to and ultimately tossed the game-winner to rookie Kenbrell Thompkins.  Assuming Danny Amendola’s head injury doesn’t sideline him for long, the Patriots will soon have the full complement of offensive characters they assumed they’d have in the preseason (except for that Hernandez guy, who won’t be of much help to anyone anytime soon).  The bonus for this team is how well the defense played against the high-octane Saints offense.  An unsung unit, they’ve quietly played very well thus far and could be one of the better defensive units the team has had in years.  Once Gronk and running back Stevan Ridley return to pair with Amendola and the rookies who’ve benefited from all these early-season reps, watch out for this team as a legitimate contender.  Again.

4)  Colin Kaepernick is being forced to evolve.

The guy who took the NFL by storm last year has come under fire at times this season, with less-than-sterling numbers on the year.  Kaepernick’s eight touchdowns are OK, but he has five interceptions as well and hasn’t been nearly the running threat he was last year.  In addition, his completion percentage of 55.9% to date is nothing to be thrilled about.  The good news?  We had to know defenses would adjust against this guy this year, especially when receiving threats Michael Crabtree and Mario Manningham went down with injuries in the preseason.  Nonetheless, the Niners are 4-2.  Kaepernick is doing what it takes to win, whether it’s dialing in on Anquan Boldin in week one or reuniting with Vernon Davis for a monster game this past Sunday with Boldin blanketed by the Arizona secondary.  This guy hasn’t been a starter for long, so his ability to weather criticism and difficult outings is a good sign for this franchise.

5)  Did the Colts really pull off a tremendous coup in the Trent Richardson trade?

The Colts’ rare trade for Richardson from the Browns earlier the season made major headlines, even though doubts persisted over Richardson’s durability and unrealized potential.  Nonetheless, he was a young every-down back who was drafted fourth overall only a year ago.  Through parts of four games with his new team, and even without competition from the injured Ahmad Bradshaw, Richardson hasn’t proven to be much more than average.  He has 61 attempts for 191 yards as a Colt, registering 3.13 yards per carry.  The Colts thought a revived running game would help take pressure off of Andrew Luck, and while Richardson’s blocking has helped with Indy being banged up in their protection units, he’s not striking fear in the heart of rush defenses.  If the Colts are to be legitimate challengers in the AFC, Richardson will need to start looking more like the franchise back he was billed as coming out of Alabama.

 

Extending The Play – Week Five

Week five in the National Football League solidified some teams as contenders, others as doormats, and left some searching for an identity and consistency at the close of the season’s first quarter.  Here are a few points of note from the season’s fifth week:

 

1)  The Atlanta Falcons are in big, big trouble.  And it’s going to get worse.

A preseason Super Bowl contender, the Falcons find themselves a shocking 1-4 after their Monday night loss to the New York Jets (at home, no less) and a full four games behind division-leading New Orleans.  With news coming out today that wide receiver Julio Jones may miss the remainder of the season with a foot injury, this team is collapsing under the weight of a rash of injuries, an inexperienced and porous secondary, and insufficient offensive line play causing major issues in the red zone.  Matt Ryan, without a solid running game while he awaits the return of the injured Steven Jackson, can no longer rely on the passing game to keep his squad in games.  Roddy White was already nursing a nagging hamstring injury, and now the crucial blow of losing Jones for the season could make this team a shell of the offensive juggernaut it figured to be.  Think Tony Gonzalez is glad he opted to forestall retirement and return for a final season with this banged-up roster?

2)  The 2011 NFL Draft quarterback class is now on a different clock.

It’s hard to believe that the Panthers’ Cam Newton would be facing pressure in his third season after the record-setting numbers he put up as a QB in his first two years  But the team isn’t winning, again, and his demeanor and ability to lead is still in question.  Despite the gaudy numbers, Newton has to be considered somewhat of a disappointment as the team’s efforts to put talent around him have not made the team drastically improved.  Of course, the overall number one pick is not going anywhere after just three seasons.  But his coach may be.  As for the other two first-rounders from 2011, Jake Locker has shown himself to be a middling 50% passer and is now facing the uphill battle from a hip injury.  The Titans may not have much more patience with a quarterback who has done little to electrify their offense.  Christian Ponder, as discussed on this blog last week, is in danger of losing his job to either veteran Matt Cassell or the just-signed Josh Freeman, a Buccaneer castoff.  It’s clear the Vikings brass is losing faith that Ponder will become the franchise quarterback they envisioned three years ago.  All three of these players could cause major turnover for their rosters/front offices if they continue on a mediocre  track.

3)  Jimmy Graham has supplanted Rob Gronkowski as the most dangerous tight end in football.

Sure, you can argue that Gronk’s injury problems of the last season and a half doesn’t really make this a fair comparison, but have you seen Graham’s numbers this year?  He’s on pace for Calvin Johnson-like statistics of 118 catches, 1,897 yards and 19 touchdowns.  He and quarterback Drew Brees connected on ten passing plays in ten attempts this past Sunday.  With the number of weapons the Saints have overall, and the fact that Graham lines up inside rather than out, it’s difficult for teams to contain him with extra defenders.  Gronkowski may return and right the red zone woes of his Patriots, but Graham is the top tight end in the game right now.

4)  Brandon Marshall continues to be a headache, despite his public comments to the contrary.

After Chicago’s loss to the Saints this past Sunday, in which Marshall had only four catches for 30 yards (one of which was a touchdown), the star receiver kept reminding reporters how proud of himself he was for not getting down in a game in which he was only targeted five times.  Never mind that this team hung with the high-flying Saints in a tough loss, or that the receiver on the other side of the ball, Alshon Jeffery, benefited from the extra attention paid to Marshall with a career-high 218 yards receiving on ten receptions.  Every time the Bears lose and Marshall’s output is less than he personally expects, quarterback Jay Cutler has to come out on his radio show on Monday saying he spoke with the receiver and his head is in a good place.  It’s obvious that no matter where Marshall’s playing and how the team is performing, individual stats and performance reign supreme with him.

5)  Terrelle Pryor looks like a legitimate signal-caller in this league.

Pryor’s late-night performance on Sunday (albeit against San Diego and their very average defense) showed flashes of brilliance.  While everyone knew he could scramble and extend plays, Pryor looked very comfortable in the pocket and had a beautiful play in the red zone where he directed his receiver to an open spot and gunned a touchdown his way.  Pryor has had enough time now to digest the system and playbook, and with the team releasing the continually ineffective, but always expensive, Matt Flynn, Pryor can now embrace the job as his.  Raider Nation may finally have a dynamic player to rally behind under center, and if Darren McFadden ever stays healthy, this offense could be formidable in the seasons to come.

Extending The Play – Week Four

The National Football League’s fourth week is in the books.  The cream is beginning to rise to the top, or sink in a putrid fashion to the bottom (hello Bucs and Jags).  Here are some key storylines from week four:

1)  Gone are the days of quarterbacks managing games.

When you look around the NFL, it’s easy to see why some teams are successful and some aren’t: the quarterback position.  There are no more “just don’t lose the game for us” situations in the league, especially now that Mark Sanchez is relegated to the bench/injured reserve.  Every team needs a quarterback who can dominate or at least be the primary factor in a team’s victory, and the teams and front office’s that don’t have them will see roster and managerial overhaul until they do.  No Rex Grossman or Matt Hasselbeck type is taking his team to the big game this year.  One of the league’s superstars, whether it be Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, or one of the exciting young upstart signal-callers like Andrew Luck or Russell Wilson, will hoist the Lombardi Trophy at year’s end.  Bet on it.

2)  The New York Giants’ philosophy caught up to them.

The Giants have always been a draft and “groom from within” team, not one that goes out and tries to land prized free agents.  Now, their roster is old, and their inability to draft immediate stars at positions like running back, linebacker, and to an extent the secondary have contributed to a lack of a running game and insufficient pass defense.  With injuries to both the offensive and defensive lines and lackluster depth behind the starters, Eli Manning is getting killed in the pocket and the team is finding itself having trouble generating a reliable pass rush.  The NFC East may be wide-open (see: bad) this year, but the 0-4 Giants aren’t going to be a factor in the division race down the stretch.

3)  The Minnesota Vikings quarterback situation has become a dilemma.

After Matt Cassell’s workmanlike, but successful, performance as an injury replacement for starter Christian Ponder last week, Minnesota may have a bit of an issue on its hands.  Rumors abound that the players feel more confident with the veteran Cassell under center, but Ponder is a former 12th overall draft choice in a make-or-break third year in which the team needs to definitively decide on his long-term future with the club.  This upcoming bye week is going to be interesting inside Vikings headquarters.  Head coach Leslie Frazier says Ponder will be the starter once his ribs have healed (presumably after the bye), but teams don’t want to risk locker room division.  If Cassell shows he’s the best choice to help the team win now (remember, this team made the playoffs last year), Frazier may have to make a very difficult decision to put Ponder on the bench.

4)  The Patriots just sustained their most serious loss so far.

Sure, this team is 4-0, and has performed miraculously with undrafted rookies at several key positions.  They’ll eventually get Rob Gronkowski, Shane Vereen, and Danny Amendola back to finally put together a semblance of the offense the team envisioned when camp broke this summer.  But with nose tackle Vince Wilfork out for the year with a torn ACL, a much-improved defense just lost its best player.  Over his career with the Patriots, Wilfork has been the difference between a top-tier run defense and one that statistically ranks last in the league when he’s not on the field.  This could have major implications come playoff time.

5)  We know who the pleasant surprises are, but which team is most disappointing?

There are several that could hold this title, from the 1-3 Falcons to the 1-2 Packers.  But I think it’s the 1-3 St. Louis Rams.  It was trendy to say this team was on a major upswing and merely had the poor misfortune of playing in arguably football’s toughest division.  But the Rams have massively underachieved to this point.  They’re currently last in the league in rushing, making their decision to let Steven Jackson go appear to be a poor one, and third-to-last in defending the run.  Sure, they’ve lost to Atlanta and San Francisco, two pretty good teams, but they got demolished by Dallas and were not competitive at all against the Niners, a team they beat and tied last year.  Rookie Tavon Austin has had difficulty getting involved in the offense, and Sam Bradford doesn’t look any more confident in the pocket with a supposedly improved offensive line than he did in seasons past.  This team needs to right the ship quickly, starting with a confidence-builder this Sunday versus Jacksonville.

Extending The Play – Week Three

Spellbinding, well-articulated insider observations from an outsider following week three of the National Football League season:

 

1)  Running the ball is still the key to winning football games.

I know, I know, Peyton Manning is carving up the league and Tom Brady is 3-0 with a gang of no-name receivers, further solidifying his greatness as a signal-caller.  But look at what the teams who can’t run the ball consistently are doing.  The Steelers are 0-3 averaging roughly 45 yards a game on the ground.  The Redskins defense, which was not good last year either, can’t hide this season because Alfred Morris is a non-factor and Robert Griffin III prefers to stay in the pocket, making the team one-dimensional and leaving their defense on the field to get filleted.  The loss of Steven Jackson was immediately evident as the Falcons’ offense fell somewhat flat in their loss to the Miami Dolphins.  Don’t overestimate how important it is to have a ground attack that not only keeps defenses honest but also helps keep the hyperactive no-huddle offenses of today’s NFL off the field.

2)  The Cleveland Browns won in spite of themselves. 

While the team continues to insist it’s not tanking this season in hopes of garnering the franchise’s first legitimate quarterback in years in next year’s draft, it’s obvious that’s precisely what their goal is.  Nonetheless, even by trading their only legitimate running back and promoting their third-string quarterback to start over an established backup in Jason Campbell, the Browns defeated a now-plummeting Minnesota Vikings team.  Kudos to Brian Hoyer and Jordan Cameron, who lit up the Vikings secondary and proved they still go out there each week to win.  Question of the week: was Cleveland brass happy to get into the win column, or disappointed their planned self-implosion went awry?

3)  The Houston Texans can’t be trusted.

After two straight come-from-behind victories to start the season over San Diego and Tennessee (in overtime), they fell flat on their faces facing the former Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens.  Andre Johnson is dinged up, Arian Foster’s hubris appears to be keeping their most effective back, Ben Tate, somewhat restrained, and their defense is not nearly as dominant as it was last year or as it was purported to be this season.  The knock on this team, despite obvious star power, is that it’s not able to win the big ones (see: early playoff exits).  Until they win games like this one or convincingly beat fringe teams like their first two opponents, I wouldn’t put this team in the category of title contender.

4)  The risk of the franchise tag rears its ugly head.

Two players on the defensive side of the ball, the Chicago Bears’ Henry Melton and the Dallas Cowboys’ Anthony Spencer (both defensive linemen), were lost for the season this week with leg injuries.  This once again goes to show why players are hesitant to sign a franchise tag, but also why taking shorter deals than they’re aiming for in negotiations may prove more fruitful for them in the long-term.  Now, coming off a lost season, what kind of free agency buzz can they generate, and how much money have they lost by refusing a two- or three-year deal this past offseason?

5)  The 49ers are in disarray.

Not only is this team 1-2 and coming off thumping’s at the hands of Seattle and Indianapolis (at home), but injuries and off-the-field incidents are taking a serious toll.  Aldon Smith will be gone for an indeterminate amount of time dealing with substance abuse issues, and nose tackle Ian Williams is out for the season.  On the offensive side of the ball, with Michael Crabtree out with that injured ACL, teams have figured out how to contain Anquan Boldin, and now tight end Vernon Davis is battling injuries too.  This has made Colin Kaepernick look human, and somewhat downtrodden, as a result.  The Niners’ depth was always a concern, and if the men stepping in to replace the aforementioned impact players don’t step up the Super Bowl runners-up could take a big step back.

Extending the Play – Week Two

Two weeks in the books, which means we only have 15 left in the NFL season!  Sorry to be the bearer of bad news on that one, but there is already quite a bit to glean from the season’s second week of action…

1)  My Dallas Cowboys run/pass ratio is completely out of whack.

91 passes, 39 runs.  When you see statistics like that after two games you’d assume the Cowboys were way behind in both contests and had to attempt to pass their way back into them.  But that’s simply not the case.  They won a tight game over New York in week one and were locked in a tight matchup for all four quarters against the Chiefs on Sunday, losing by one.  Without a viable running game, this team can’t extend drives and leaves a defense on the field that’s surrendering over 300 yards a game through the air.  Is this a product of new offensive coordinator Bill Callahan, Tony Romo’s new playcalling responsibilities, or a lack of faith in DeMarco Murray and his backups?  It’s possibly all three, but if the team has a repeat of their measly rushing totals of a season ago, they’ll once again settle into mediocre 8-8 land.

2)  The entire NFC East looks ripe for the picking on a weekly basis right now.

All four teams lost last week, and all four have defenses that make opposing quarterbacks and offensive coordinators smile.  The Redskins secondary and overall team tackling is horrendous; the Eagles’ fast-paced attack means plenty of plays for the other team, too, exposing a porous secondary that can’t stop the pass; Dallas’ cornerbacks are still not living up to expectations, with their deficiencies against the pass documented above; and the Giants have yet to recreate their fearsome pass rush of a few seasons ago, making Eli Manning’s interceptions and the issues with the running game even more problematic.  9-7 may once again win this division, but who ends up with that total is anyone’s guess.

3)  The Dolphins did exactly what they had to do in the first two weeks.

The games for Miami from weeks three through five read like this: Atlanta, at New Orleans, Baltimore.  One could make the argument preseason that this young team would lose all three to those serious postseason contenders, making the first two games on the road that much more important for overall confidence.  The Dolphins went into Cleveland and survived a plucky Browns team, then out-executed Andrew Luck for a great win at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.  If the Dolphins can win even one of the upcoming three games they will have had a very solid start to their season.

4)  If the Broncos are as great as they appear, they’ll continue to win even with some adversity.

Peyton Manning and co. have looked unstoppable in the season’s first two weeks, and should have no problem with Oakland on Monday night.  But make no mistake: the loss of Pro Bowl left tackle Ryan Clady is huge.  Now with a backup left tackle protecting the blind side of a 38-year old quarterback two years removed from neck surgery, the team may have to reassess protection packages and play-calling.  Von Miller is still missing from the defense while serving his suspension and the running game has proven unreliable thus far.  This is not a team without flaws, but right now it’s scoring so much some may go unnoticed. That could change as the season goes on.

5)  Jacksonville is horrible.  

When your local television station issues an apology for airing YOUR GAME instead of more enticing matchups across the league, you have officially become a laughingstock.  The quarterback situation is in complete disarray, as both Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne have the unfortunate combinations of being terrible and getting hurt often.  There is a serious dearth of skill players with Justin Blackmon still suspended, and the defense is just on the field too long without any aid from their offensive compatriots.  It’s not impossible to envision this team losing 16 games.  That being said, they should not sign Tim Tebow.  You know what really incites a loyal fan base?  Consistent losing.  Signing fan favorite Tebow may add a few wins to this year’s total but would hamstring the team from figuring out the position for the long-term.  If John Elway and Bill Belichick couldn’t fix this guy’s mechanics and make him a viable long-term starter, Gus Bradley and the Jacksonville brass won’t be able to either.  Suck it up for this year, hope to strike it rich with next year’s quarterback crop in the draft or through free agency.